👤 Spencer Phillips Hey

The reigning paradigm of rational drug discovery in translational medicine attempts to exploit biological theories and pathophysiological explanations to identify novel drug targets and therapeutic strategies. Yet because many theories in medicine are either incomplete (at best) or false (at worst), relying on theoretical explanations can have some puzzling and troubling consequences. New drugs may be shown to be effective in clinical trials and receive regulatory approval despite a faulty explanation for why they are effective. If physicians rely on this explanation to make treatment decisions, it can lead to systematic misdiagnoses and patient harm. For research programs, underdetermination may shield faulty biomedical explanations, and this can result in wasted research resources and avoidable burdens on human subjects. These problematic features of biomedical explanations can be resolved by reconceiving the epistemology of translational medicine in terms of heuristics. Show less

Although biomarkers are used as surrogate measures for drug targeting and approval and are generally based on plausible biological hypotheses, some are found to not correlate well with clinical outcomes. Over-reliance on inadequately validated biomarkers in drug development can lead to harm to trial subjects and patients and to research waste. To shed greater light on the process and ethics of biomarker-based drug development, we conducted a systematic portfolio analysis of cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitors, a drug class designed to improve lipid profiles and prevent cardiovascular events. Despite years of development, no cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitor has yet been approved for clinical use. We searched PubMed and Clinicaltrials.gov for clinical studies of 5 known cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitors: anacetrapib, dalcetrapib, evacetrapib, TA-8995, and torcetrapib. Published reports and registration records were extracted for patient demographic characteristics and study authors' recommendations of clinical usage or further testing. We used Accumulating Evidence and Research Organization graphing to depict the portfolio of research activities and a Poisson model to examine trends. We identified 100 studies for analysis that involved 96 944 human subjects. The data from only 41 201 (42%) of the human subjects had been presented in a published report. For the 3 discontinued cholesterol ester transfer protein inhibitors, we found a pattern of consistently positive results on lipid-modification end points followed by negative results using clinical end points. Inefficiencies and harms can arise if a biomarker hypothesis continues to drive trials despite successive failures. Regulators, research funding bodies, and public policy makers may need to play a greater role in evaluating and coordinating biomarker-driven research programs. Show less