👤 Daniel E Coral

To delineate organ-specific and systemic drivers of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), we applied integrative causal inference across clinical, imaging, and proteomic domains in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). Bayesian network analyses and complementary two-sample Mendelian randomization were used to quantify causal pathways linking adipose distribution, glycemia, and insulin dynamics with liver fat in the IMI-DIRECT prospective cohort study. Data included frequently sampled metabolic challenge tests, MRI-derived abdominal and hepatic fat content, serological biomarkers, and Olink plasma proteomics from 331 adults with new-onset T2D and 964 adults without diabetes, with harmonized protocols enabling replication. High basal insulin secretion rate (BasalISR), estimated via C-peptide deconvolution, emerged as the primary potential causal driver of liver fat accumulation in both cohorts. BasalISR, a clearance-independent measure of β-cell insulin output distinct from peripheral insulin levels, was independently linked to hepatic steatosis. Visceral adipose tissue exhibited bidirectional associations with liver fat, suggesting a self-reinforcing metabolic loop. Of 446 analyzed proteins, 34 mapped to these metabolic networks (27 in the non-diabetes network, 18 in the T2D network, and 11 shared). Key proteins directly associated with liver fat included GUSB, ALDH1A1, LPL, IGFBP1/2, CTSD, HMOX1, FGF21, AGRP, and ACE2. Sex-stratified analyses identified GUSB in females and LEP in males as the strongest protein predictors of liver fat. BasalISR may better capture early β-cell-driven disturbances contributing to MASLD. These findings outline a multifactorial, sex- and disease stage-specific proteo-metabolic architecture of hepatic steatosis and identify potential biomarkers or therapeutic targets. Show less

Cost-effectiveness of Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] testing is not established. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Lp(a) testing in the cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention population from healthcare and societal perspectives. We constructed and validated a multi-state microsimulation Markov model for a population of 10,000 individuals aged between 40 and 69 years without CVD, selected randomly from the UK Biobank. The model evaluated Lp(a) testing in individuals not initially classified as high-risk based on age, diabetes status, or the SCORE-2 algorithm. Those with an Lp(a) level ≥105 nmol/L (50 mg/dL) were treated as high risk (initiation of a statin plus blood pressure lowering). The Lp(a) testing intervention was compared to standard of care. The primary analyses were conducted from the Australian and UK healthcare perspectives in 2023AUD/GBP. A cost adaptation method estimated cost-effectiveness in multiple European countries, Canada, and the USA. Among 10,000 individuals, 1,807 had their treatment modified from Lp(a) testing. This led to 217 and 255 quality-adjusted life years gained in Australia and the UK, respectively, with corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 12,134 (cost-effective) and -3,491 (cost-saving). From a societal perspective, Lp(a) testing saved $85 and £263 per person in Australia and the UK, respectively. Lp(a) testing was cost-saving among all countries tested in the cost adaptation analysis. Lp(a) testing in the primary prevention population to reclassify CVD risk and treatment is cost-saving and warranted to prevent CVD. Show less

To delineate organ-specific and systemic drivers of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), we applied integrative causal inference across clinical, imaging, and proteomic domains in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). We used Bayesian network analyses to quantify causal pathways linking adipose distribution, glycemia, and insulin dynamics with fatty liver using data from the IMI-DIRECT prospective cohort study. Measurements were made of glucose and insulin dynamics (using frequently-sampled metabolic challenge tests), MRI-derived abdominal and liver fat content, serological biomarkers, and Olink plasma proteomics from 331 adults with new-onset T2D and 964 adults free from diabetes at enrolment. The common protocols used in these two cohorts provided the opportunity for replication analyses to be performed. When the direction of the effect could not be determined with high probability through Bayesian networks, complementary two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was employed. High basal insulin secretion rate (BasalISR) was identified as the primary causal driver of liver fat accumulation in both diabetes and non-diabetes. Excess visceral adipose tissue (VAT) was bidirectionally associated with liver fat, indicating a self-reinforcing metabolic loop. Basal insulin clearance (Clinsb) worsened as a consequence of liver fat accumulation to a greater degree before the onset of T2D. Out of 446 analysed proteins, 34 mapped to these metabolic networks and 27 were identified in the non-diabetes network, 18 in the diabetes network, and 11 were common between the two networks. Key proteins directly associated with liver fat included GUSB, ALDH1A1, LPL, IGFBP1/2, CTSD, HMOX1, FGF21, AGRP, and ACE2. Sex-stratified analyses revealed distinct proteomic drivers: GUSB and LEP were most predictive of liver fat in females and males, respectively. Basal insulin hypersecretion is a modifiable, causal driver of MASLD, particularly prior to glycaemic decompensation. Our findings highlight a multifactorial, sex- and disease-stage-specific proteo-metabolic architecture of hepatic steatosis. Proteins such as GUSB, ALDH1A1, LPL, and IGFBPs warrant further investigation as potential biomarkers or therapeutic targets for MASLD prevention and treatment. Show less